PSI Planning Management and Demand Forecasting System for Small and Medium Enterprises
CustomForecast Ver3.0
It is a demand forecasting system developed through industry-academia collaboration for small and medium-sized enterprises.
The formulation of sales plans is an essential task for all companies. Forecasting is a crucial activity for enhancing the accuracy of sales plans. However, research on improving forecasting accuracy has not been sufficiently conducted relative to its importance. In the research conducted by Osaka Prefectural University on "Improving Various Forecasting Accuracies," a method for deriving highly accurate sales forecasting models has been devised.
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basic information
Overview of the Forecasting Algorithm The CustomForecast forecasting method is a derivation of a forecasting model that combines both the moving average method and the exponential smoothing method. First, the monthly indices of the data are calculated using the moving average method, which is then reflected to extract the trend from the time series data. Next, the improved original series data is applied to the exponential smoothing method to derive better forecast values. This allows for the construction of a forecasting model that takes into account both seasonal trends and recent weights. The smoothing constant in the exponential smoothing part utilizes the optimal solution derived from parameter estimation of the ARMA model. For the validation of the forecasts, comparisons are made with forecast values derived solely using the exponential smoothing method, and further analysis is conducted by comparing these with forecast values derived using the ARIMA model, resulting in desirable numerical outcomes.
Price information
Monthly fee: 5,000 yen/month (One-time purchase is also available.) For more details, please contact us.
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Applications/Examples of results
PSI Project Management and Business Reform - Improvement of sales plan accuracy - Development of procurement plans (manufacturing plans and purchasing plans) - Achievement of optimal inventory (inventory reduction and prevention of stockouts)
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Company information
We are a group of experts well-versed in management and IT utilization. In addition to consulting, we provide solutions with a wealth of implementation experience, such as demand forecasting systems, which have received high customer evaluations. Main Solutions: ◆ A demand forecasting system (demand forecasting software) used worldwide (we are the only authorized distributor of SmartForecasts in the Asia region). ◆ A demand forecasting system (demand forecasting software) developed in collaboration with academia for small and medium-sized enterprises (we are the general sales agent for CustomForecast). ◆ An automatic ordering support system based on sales plans and inventory information. ◆ A low-cost, high-performance production planning scheduler called "Sakura Scheduler."