Demand Forecasting System for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and Small Businesses

basic information

The CustomForecast forecasting method is a derivation method for a forecasting model that combines both the moving average method and the exponential smoothing method. First, the moving average method is used to calculate the monthly index of the data, which is then reflected to extract the trend from the time series data. Next, by applying the improved original series data to the exponential smoothing method, superior forecast values are derived. This allows for the construction of a forecasting model that takes into account both seasonal trends and recent weights. The smoothing constant in the exponential smoothing part utilizes the optimal solution obtained from parameter estimation of the ARMA model. For the validation of the forecasts, comparisons are made with forecast values derived solely from the exponential smoothing method, and further analysis is conducted by comparing these with forecast values derived from the ARIMA model, resulting in desirable numerical outcomes.

Price information

Small businesses can use it free of charge.

Delivery Time

Applications/Examples of results

It is utilized for the improvement of the following operations: Sales planning Purchasing planning Production planning Ordering planning Inventory management Inventory optimization (inventory reduction, prevention of stockouts)