[Report] Forecast of Solar Power Installation in Japan (2025-2040)

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last updated：Jan 30, 2026

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Towards the Era of Solar Power as the Main Energy Source - Forecasting Installation Amounts by Sector Until 2040

This report is based on the solar power installation targets outlined in the 7th Basic Energy Plan, which was approved by the Cabinet in February 2025. It provides a comprehensive analysis of market trends, policy environments, and technological developments, culminating in the latest long-term forecast for solar power installation in Japan up to 2040. In the 7th Basic Energy Plan, which was approved by the Cabinet in February 2024, the forecast for solar power generation capacity for the fiscal year 2040 has been significantly raised to 23-29%, with installation capacity projected to be between 203-280 GW (AC), positioning it as the top power source in Japan's energy mix. However, the current annual installation rate remains below 5 GW, necessitating a high installation pace of an average of 8-13 GW per year over the next 16 years to meet these targets. This report sets two scenarios: the "Current Growth Case," which aims to achieve a 23% generation forecast, and the "Installation Acceleration Case," which aims for a 29% forecast. It analyzes market trends, policy environments, and technological developments comprehensively, predicting installation volumes by 2040 across various sectors and scales, including residential, commercial facilities, public and infrastructure facilities, community-based ground installations, agricultural installations, and floating installations.

Related Link - https://www.rts-pv.com/business/report/

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**Features of this Report** This report incorporates changes in domestic and international policies and market environments, and based on the following, analyzes and forecasts Japan's solar power installation volume based on two scenarios. - Forecast of solar power installation volume until 2040 - Installation trends by application, scale, and region - Impact of policy and system changes on the market - Relationship with technological advancements and the electricity market **Overview of this Report** "Forecast of Japan's Solar Power Installation Volume (2025-2040)" Published by: Resource Comprehensive System Co., Ltd. Publication Date: January 20, 2026 Number of Pages: Approximately 180 pages 〈Format〉: PDF (downloadable format) *Printed copies can also be ordered additionally *For more details, please feel free to contact us. Related Link - https://www.rts-pv.com/business/report/

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Price (excluding consumption tax): Electronic data (PDF) Members*1: 100,000 yen General: 150,000 yen Booklet (limited to PDF purchasers): 20,000 yen (including shipping) Presentation (limited to PDF purchasers): 50,000 yen (travel expenses not included) *1: Member companies that subscribe to our monthly report "Solar Power Generation Information" or "PV Generation Business Frontline"

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* Utilization for considering future business development and strategies * Utilization to understand the current state and expected adoption of the solar power market in Japan This content can be used as foundational material for future business strategies and policy considerations for local governments, research institutions, and energy-related companies. * For more details, please contact us.